Download all publications in BibTeX format: SCRiM-publications-2022-01-31.bib


2022


[178] Helgeson, C, RE Nicholas, K Keller, CE Forest and N Tuana (2022): Attention to values helps shape convergence research, Climatic Change, 170(1), 17, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03274-y.

2021


[177] Errickson, FC, K Keller, WD Collins, V Srikrishnan and D Anthoff (2021): Equity is more important for the social cost of methane than climate uncertainty, Nature, 592(7855), 564-570, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03386-6.
[176] Lempert, R and S Turner (2021): On Model Pluralism and the Utility of Quantitative Decision Support, Risk Analysis, 41(6), 874-877, DOI: 10.1111/risa.13747.
[175] Lempert, RJ and S Turner (2021): Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision-Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model, Risk Analysis, 41(6), 845-865, DOI: 10.1111/risa.13579.
[174] Srikrishnan, V and K Keller (2021): Small increases in agent-based model complexity can result in large increases in required calibration data, Environmental Modelling & Software, 138, 104978, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104978.

2020


[173] Hadjimichael, A, PM Reed and JD Quinn (2020): Navigating Deeply Uncertain Tradeoffs in Harvested Predator-Prey Systems, Complexity, 2020, DOI: 10.1155/2020/4170453.
[172] Hoffman, AL, AR Kemanian and CE Forest (2020): The response of maize, sorghum, and soybean yield to growing-phase climate revealed with machine learning, Environmental Research Letters, 15(9), 094013, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7b22.
[171] Lee, BS, M Haran, RW Fuller, D Pollard and K Keller (2020): A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet, The Annals of Applied Statistics, 14(2), 605-634, DOI: 10.1214/19-AOAS1305.
[170] Tsai, CY, CE Forest and D Pollard (2020): The role of internal climate variability in projecting Antarctica’s contribution to future sea-level rise, Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05354-8.

2019


[169] Anthoff, D and J Emmerling (2019): Inequality and the Social Cost of Carbon, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 6(2), 243-273, DOI: 10.1086/701900.
[168] Ceres, RL, CE Forest and K Keller (2019): Optimization of multiple storm surge risk mitigation strategies for an island City On a Wedge, Environmental Modelling & Software, 119, 341-353, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.06.011.
[167] De Cian, E and I Sue Wing (2019): Global Energy Consumption in a Warming Climate, Environmental & Resource Economics, 72(2), 365-410, DOI: 10.1007/s10640-017-0198-4.
[166] Lamontagne, JR, PM Reed, G Marangoni, K Keller and GG Garner (2019): Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action, Nature Climate Change, 9(4), 290-294, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8.
[165] Libardoni, AG, CE Forest, AP Sokolov and E Monier (2019): Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties, Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16), 10000-10007, DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082442.
[164] Nordhaus, W (2019): Climate Change: The Ultimate Challenge for Economics, The American Economic Review, 109(6), 1991-2014, DOI: 10.1257/aer.109.6.1991.
[163] Nordhaus, W (2019): Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(25), 12261-12269, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1814990116.
[162] Olson, R, , L Ruckert, W Chang, K Keller, M Haran and SI An (2019): Stilt: Easy Emulation of Time Series AR(1) Computer Model Output in Multidimensional Parameter Space, DOI: 10.32614/rj-2018-049.
[161] Ruckert, KL, V Srikrishnan and K Keller (2019): Characterizing the deep uncertainties surrounding coastal flood hazard projections: A case study for Norfolk, VA, Scientific Reports, 9(1), 11373, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-47587-6.
[160] Tuana, N (2019): Climate Apartheid: The Forgetting of Race in the Anthropocene, Critical Philosophy of Race, 7(1), 1-31, DOI: 10.5325/critphilrace.7.1.0001.
[159] van Ruijven, BJ, E De Cian and I Sue Wing (2019): Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change, Nature Communications, 10(1), 2762, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3.

2018


[158] Ceres, R (2018): Understanding and quantifying storm surge risk and identifying Pareto dominant risk mitigation strategies, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University.
[157] Christensen, P, K Gillingham and W Nordhaus (2018): Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(21), 5409-5414, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1713628115.
[156] Garner, GG and K Keller (2018): Using direct policy search to identify robust strategies in adapting to uncertain sea-level rise and storm surge, Environmental Modelling & Software, 107, 96-104, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.006.
[155] Gillingham, K, W Nordhaus, D Anthoff, G Blanford, V Bosetti, P Christensen, H McJeon and J Reilly (2018): Modeling Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multimodel Comparison, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, DOI: 10.1086/698910.
[154] Helgeson, C (2018): Structuring Decisions Under Deep Uncertainty, Topoi, DOI: 10.1007/s11245-018-9584-y.
[153] Helgeson, C, R Bradley and B Hill (2018): Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment, Climatic Change, 1-9, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6.
[152] Hermes, C, K Keller, RE Nicholas, G Segelbacher and HM Schaefer (2018): Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet, PLoS One, 13(1), e0191773, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191773.
[151] Hoffman, A (2018): Detecting the effect of dust and other climate variables on crop yields using diagnostic statistical crop models, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University.
[150] Lamontagne, JR, PM Reed, R Link, KV Calvin, LE Clarke and JA Edmonds (2018): Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios, Earth's Future, 6(3), 488-504, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000701.
[149] Moore, FC, J Rising, N Lollo, C Springer, V Vasquez, A Dolginow, C Hope and D Anthoff (2018): Mimi-PAGE, an open-source implementation of the PAGE09 integrated assessment model, Scientific Data, 5, 180187, DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.187.
[148] Morris, J, V Srikrishnan, M Webster and J Reilly (2018): Hedging Strategies: Electricity Investment Decisions under Policy Uncertainty, Energy Journal, DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.jmor.
[147] Nordhaus, W (2018): Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017, Climatic Change, 148(4), 623-640, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y.
[146] Nordhaus, W (2018): Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(3), 333-360, DOI: 10.1257/pol.20170046.
[145] Oyler, JW and RE Nicholas (2018): Time of observation adjustments to daily station precipitation may introduce undesired statistical issues, International Journal of Climatology, 38, e364-e377, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5377.
[144] Pollard, D, N Gomez, RM DeConto and HK Han (2018): Estimating Modern Elevations of Pliocene Shorelines Using a Coupled Ice Sheet-Earth-Sea Level Model, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123(9), 2279-2291, DOI: 10.1029/2018JF004745.
[143] Pollard, D, RM DeConto and RB Alley (2018): A continuum model of ice mélange and its role during retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10064242.
[142] Quinn, JD, PM Reed, M Giuliani, A Castelletti, JW Oyler and RE Nicholas (2018): Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management for Flood Protection, Hydropower Production and Agricultural Water Supply, Water Resources Research, DOI: 10.1029/2018WR022743.
[141] Singh, R, JD Quinn, PM Reed and K Keller (2018): Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point, PLoS One, 13(2), e0191768, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191768.
[140] Srikrishnan, VA (2018): Markov-Switching Models for Probabilistic Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting, Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/files/final_submissions/16302.
[139] Sriver, RL, RJ Lempert, P Wikman-Svahn and K Keller (2018): Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions, PLoS One, 13(2), e0190641, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190641.
[138] Traeger, CP (2018): ACE – Analytic Climate Economy (with Temperature and Uncertainty), DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3307622.
[137] Tsai, CY (2018): Assessing the uncertainties of future changes in ice sheets and polar climate related to internal climate variability and climate model structural uncertainties, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University.
[136] Tuana, N (2018): The Ethical Dimensions of Geoengineering: Solar Radiation Management through Sulphate Particle Injection, In Geoengineering our Climate? Ethics, Politics, and Governance, [JJ Blackstock, and S Low (eds)], Routledge, https://www.routledge.com/Geoengineering-our-Climate-Ethics-Politics-and-Governance/Blackstock-Low/p/book/9781849713740.
[135] Wong, T, A Klufas, V Srikrishnan and K Keller (2018): Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard, Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3d.
[134] Wong, TE (2018): An integration and assessment of multiple covariates of nonstationary storm surge statistical behavior by Bayesian model averaging, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 4(1/2), 53-63, DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-4-53-2018.

2017


[133] Adler, M, D Anthoff, V Bosetti, G Garner, K Keller and N Treich (2017): Priority for the worse-off and the social cost of carbon, Nature Climate Change, 7(6), 443-449, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3298.
[132] Bakker, AMR, TE Wong, KL Ruckert and K Keller (2017): Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet, Nature Scientific Reports, 7(1), 3880, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-04134-5.
[131] Bessette, DL, LA Mayer, B Cwik, M Vezér, K Keller, RJ Lempert and N Tuana (2017): Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management, Risk Analysis, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12743.
[130] Ceres, RL, CE Forest and K Keller (2017): Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge, Climatic Change, 1-15, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2075-0.
[129] Fuller, RW (2017): Probabilistic Inversion of Expert Assessments to Inform Projections about Antarctic Ice Sheet Responses, Masters Thesis, Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University.
[128] Fuller, RW, TE Wong and K Keller (2017): Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses, PLoS One, 12(12), e0190115, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190115.
[127] Gabriel, CJ, A Robock, L Xia, B Zambri and B Kravitz (2017): The G4Foam Experiment: global climate impacts of regional ocean albedo modification, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 17, 595-613, DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-595-2017.
[126] Gately, CK, LR Hutyra, S Peterson and I Sue Wing (2017): Urban emissions hotspots: Quantifying vehicle congestion and air pollution using mobile phone GPS data, Environmental Pollution, 229, 496-504, DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.05.091.
[125] Giuliani, M, JD Quinn, JD Herman, A Castelletti and PM Reed (2017): Scalable Multiobjective Control for Large-Scale Water Resources Systems Under Uncertainty, IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology, PP(99), 1-8, DOI: 10.1109/TCST.2017.2705162.
[124] Haran, M, W Chang, K Keller, R Nicholas and D Pollard (2017): Statistics and the Future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Chance, 30(4), 37-44, DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2017.1406758.
[123] Hoffman, AL, AR Kemanian and CE Forest (2017): Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub-Saharan Africa, Global Change Biology, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13901.
[122] Kravitz, B, A Robock and J Kristjánsson (2017): Understanding How Climate Engineering Can Offset Climate Change, Eos, DOI: 10.1029/2016EO005279.
[121] Lee, BS, M Haran and K Keller (2017): Multi-decadal scale detection time for potentially increasing Atlantic storm surges in a warming climate, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074606.
[120] Libardoni, AG (2017): Improving constraints on climate system properties with additional data and new methods, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University.
[119] Mayer, LA, K Loa, B Cwik, N Tuana, K Keller, C Gonnerman, AM Parker and RJ Lempert (2017): Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models, Global Environmental Change, 42, 107-116, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.007.
[118] Mistry, MN, I Sue Wing and E De Cian (2017): Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 12(7), 075007, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa788c.
[117] Nordhaus, WD (2017): Revisiting the social cost of carbon, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(7), 1518-1523, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1609244114.
[116] Oddo, PC, BS Lee, GG Garner, V Srikrishnan, PM Reed, CE Forest and K Keller (2017): Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management, Risk Analysis, DOI: 10.1111/risa.12888.
[115] Quinn, JD, PM Reed and K Keller (2017): Direct policy search for robust multi-objective management of deeply uncertain socio-ecological tipping points, Environmental Modelling & Software, 92, 125-141, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.017.
[114] Quinn, JD, PM Reed, M Giuliani and A Castelletti (2017): Rival framings: A framework for discovering how problem formulation uncertainties shape risk management trade-offs in water resources systems, Water Resources Research, 53(8), 7208-7233, DOI: 10.1002/2017WR020524.
[113] Ruckert, KL, G Shaffer, D Pollard, Y Guan, TE Wong, CE Forest and K Keller (2017): Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration, PLoS One, 12(1), e0170052, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170052.
[112] Ruckert, KL, PC Oddo and K Keller (2017): Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay, PLoS One, 12(3), e0174666, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174666.
[111] Ruckert, KL, Y Guan, AM Bakker, CE Forest and K Keller (2017): The effects of time-varying observation errors on semi-empirical sea-level projections, Climatic Change, 140(3), 349-360, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1858-z.
[110] Tsai, CY, CE Forest and D Pollard (2017): Assessing the contribution of internal climate variability to anthropogenic changes in ice sheet volume, Geophysical Research Letters, 44(12), 2017GL073443, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073443.
[109] Tschakert, P, J Barnett, N Ellis, C Lawrence, N Tuana, M New, C Elrick-Barr, R Pandit and D Pannell (2017): Climate change and loss, as if people mattered: values, places, and experiences, WIREs Climate Change, 8(5), DOI: 10.1002/wcc.476.
[108] Tuana, N (2017): Climate change and place: delimiting cosmopolitanism, In Cosmopolitanism and Place, [J Wahman, JM Medina, and JJ Stuhr (eds)], 181-196, Indiana University Press, 181-196, https://pennstate.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/climate-change-and-place-delimiting-cosmopolitanism.
[107] Tuana, N (2017): Understanding coupled ethical-epistemic issues relevant to climate modeling and decision support science, In Scientific Integrity and Ethics in the Geosciences, [L Gundersen (ed)], 157, John Wiley & Sons, 73, 157, https://tinyurl.com/nhdkbc2j.
[106] Tuana, N (2017): Ethically Valuing the Future: Non-Market Loss and Damage in the Context of Climate Change, Georgetown Journal of Law and Public Policy, 15, 979, https://heinonline.org/hol-cgi-bin/get_pdf.cgi?handle=hein.journals/geojlap15§ion=46.
[105] Vezér, M, A Bakker, K Keller and N Tuana (2017): Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling, Climatic Change, 1-10, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9.
[104] Wong, TE and K Keller (2017): Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans, Earth's Future, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000607.
[103] Wong, TE, AM Bakker and K Keller (2017): Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense, Climatic Change, 144(2), 347-364, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4.
[102] Wong, TE, AM Bakker, K Ruckert, P Applegate, AB Slangen and K Keller (2017): BRICK v0.2, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections, Geoscientific Model Development, 10(7), 2741-2760, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-2741-2017.
[101] Zatarain Salazar, J, PM Reed, JD Quinn, M Giuliani and A Castelletti (2017): Balancing exploration, uncertainty and computational demands in many objective reservoir optimization, Advances in Water Resources, 109(Supplement C), 196-210, DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.09.014.

2016


[100] Anthoff, D, F Estrada and RS Tol (2016): Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation, The American Economic Review, 106(5), 602-606, DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161102.
[99] Applegate, PJ and K Keller (2016): Climate engineering (albedo modification) could slow, but probably would not stop, Greenland Ice Sheet melting, Climanosco, https://goo.gl/VCs5he.
[98] Bakker, AM, D Louchard and K Keller (2016): Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections, Climatic Change, 1-9, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1864-1.
[97] Bakker, AM, PJ Applegate and K Keller (2016): A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to temperature changes, Environmental Modelling & Software, 83, 27-35, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.003.
[96] Carlsen, H, R Lempert, P Wikman-Svahn and V Schweizer (2016): Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches, Environmental Modelling & Software, 84, 155-164, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011.
[95] Chang, W, M Haran, P Applegate and D Pollard (2016): Improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data, The Annals of Applied Statistics, 10(4), 2274-2302, DOI: 10.1214/16-AOAS979.
[94] Christensen, P, K Gillingham and W Nordhaus (2016): Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Productivity Growth, 19th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=5074.
[93] Diaz, D and K Keller (2016): A potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for economic analyses of climate policy, The American Economic Review, 106(5), 607-611, DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161103.
[92] Garner, G, P Reed and K Keller (2016): Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs, Climatic Change, 134(4), 713-723, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1607-3.
[91] Gleckler, PJ, PJ Durack, RJ Stouffer, GC Johnson and CE Forest (2016): Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades, Nature Climate Change, 6(4), 394–398, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2915.
[90] Lemoine, D and CP Traeger (2016): Economics of tipping the climate dominoes, Nature Climate Change, 6(5), 514-519, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2902.
[89] Lemoine, D and CP Traeger (2016): Ambiguous tipping points, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 132(Part B), 5-18, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2016.03.009.
[88] Lempert, RJ (2016): Book Review: "Experiment Earth: Responsible Innovation in Geoengineering" by Jack Stilgoe, and "A Case for Climate Engineering" by David Keith, Science & Public Policy, DOI: 10.1093/scipol/scw023.
[87] Noelke, C, M McGovern, DJ Corsi, MP Jimenez, A Stern, I Sue Wing and L Berkman (2016): Increasing ambient temperature reduces emotional well-being, Environmental Research, 151, 124-129, DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2016.06.045.
[86] Oschlies, A, H Held, D Keller, K Keller, N Mengis, M Quaas, W Rickels and H Schmidt (2016): Indicators and Metrics for the Assessment of Climate Engineering, Earth's Future, 2016EF000449, DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000449.
[85] Pollard, D, W Chang, M Haran, P Applegate and R DeConto (2016): Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 9(5), 1697-1723, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016.
[84] Robock, A (2016): Blowin' in the Wind: Observing Stratospheric Aerosols, Eos, Editor's Vox, https://goo.gl/rN9Ruh.
[83] Robock, A (2016): Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: More research needed, Earth's Future, 4(12), 644-648, DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000407.
[82] Simpson, M, JO Wallgrün, A Klippel, L Yang, G Garner, K Keller, D Oprean and S Bansal (2016): Immersive Analytics for Multi-objective Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) Models, 2016 ACM Companion on Interactive Surfaces and Spaces, DOI: 10.1145/3009939.3009955.
[81] Trutnevyte, E, C Guivarch, R Lempert and N Strachan (2016): Reinvigorating the scenario technique to expand uncertainty consideration, Climatic Change, 135(3-4), 373-379, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1585-x.
[80] Tschakert, P, N Tuana, H Westskog, B Koelle and A Afrika (2016): TCHANGE: the role of values and visioning in transformation science, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 20, 21-25, DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2016.04.003.
[79] Tuana, N (2016): The Values of Science Literacy, In Reconceptualizing STEM Education: The Central Role of Practices, [RA Duschl, and AS Bismack (eds)], Routledge, http://books.google.com/books/about/Reconceptualizing_STEM_Education.html?hl=&id=JbFYCwAAQBAJ.
[78] Tuana, N (2016): Climate Change Through the Lens of Feminist Philosophy, In Meta-Philosophical Reflection on Feminist Philosophies of Science, [MC Amoretti, and N Vassallo (eds)], 35-53, Springer International Publishing, 35-53, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-26348-9_3.
[77] Vezér, MA (2016): Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 56, 95-102, DOI: 10.1016/j.shpsa.2016.01.004.
[76] Vezér, MA (2016): Variety-of-evidence reasoning about the distant past: A case study in paleoclimate reconstructions, European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 1-9, DOI: 10.1007/s13194-016-0156-y.
[75] Xia, L, A Robock, S Tilmes and RR Neely (2016): Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could enhance the terrestrial photosynthesis rate, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(3), 1479-1489, DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-1479-2016.
[74] Zatarain Salazar, J, PM Reed, JD Herman, M Giuliani and A Castelletti (2016): A diagnostic assessment of evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective surface water reservoir control, Advances in Water Resources, 92, 172-185, DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.04.006.
[73] Zaveri, E, DS Grogan, K Fisher-Vanden, S Frolking, RB Lammers, DH Wrenn, A Prusevich and RE Nicholas (2016): Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 11(8), 084005, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084005.

2015


[72] Applegate, P, R Sriver, G Garner, A Bakker, R Alley and K Keller (2015): Risk Analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab Manual with Exercises in R, https://leanpub.com/raes.
[71] Applegate, PJ and K Keller (2015): How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?, Environmental Research Letters, 10(8), 084018, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018.
[70] Applegate, PJ, BR Parizek, RE Nicholas, RB Alley and K Keller (2015): Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale, Climate Dynamics, 45(7), 2001-2011, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2451-7.
[69] Chang, W, M Haran, R Olson and K Keller (2015): A composite likelihood approach to computer model calibration with high-dimensional spatial data, Statistica Sinica, 25, 243-259, DOI: 10.5705/ss.2013.219w.
[68] Coffey, B, A Stern and I Sue Wing (2015): Climate change impacts on us electricity demand: Insights from micro-consistent aggregation of a structural model, International Energy Workshop, http://tinyurl.com/o233tbm.
[67] Gabriel, CJ and A Robock (2015): Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15(20), 11949-11966, DOI: 10.5194/acp-15-11949-2015.
[66] Gately, CK, LR Hutyra and I Sue Wing (2015): Cities, traffic, and CO₂: A multidecadal assessment of trends, drivers, and scaling relationships, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(16), 4999-5004, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1421723112.
[65] Hadka, D, J Herman, P Reed and K Keller (2015): An open source framework for many-objective robust decision making, Environmental Modelling and Software, 74, 114-129, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.014.
[64] Herman, JD, PM Reed, HB Zeff and GW Characklis (2015): How Should Robustness Be Defined for Water Systems Planning under Change?, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 141(10), 04015012, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000509.
[63] Keller, K and R Nicholas (2015): Improving Climate Projections to Better Inform Climate Risk Management, In The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming, [LB Semmler (ed)], 9-18, Oxford University Press, 9-18, DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199856978.013.0002.
[62] Kravitz, B, A Robock, S Tilmes, O Boucher, JM English, PJ Irvine, A Jones, MG Lawrence, M MacCracken, H Muri, JC Moore, U Niemeier, SJ Phipps, J Sillmann, T Storelvmo, H Wang and S Watanabe (2015): The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): Simulation design and preliminary results, Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 3379-3392, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015.
[61] Kupp, C (2015): Contrasting Inundation Patterns of Two Pacific Islands Under Sea-Level Rise, Bachelor's Thesis, Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University.
[60] Lempert, RJ (2015): Embedding (some) benefit-cost concepts into decision support processes with deep uncertainty, Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 5(3), 487-514, http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jbca.2014.5.issue-3/jbca-2014-9006/jbca-2014-9006.xml.
[59] Nordhaus, W (2015): Climate Clubs and Carbon Pricing, In Global Carbon Pricing: We Will If You Will, [P Cramton, DJC MacKay, A Ockenfels, and S Stoft (eds)], carbon-price.com.
[58] Nordhaus, W (2015): Climate Clubs to Overcome Free-Riding, Issues in Science and Technology, 31(4), https://issues.org/climate-clubs-overcome-free-riding-climate-agreement-policy/.
[57] Pollard, D, RM DeConto and RB Alley (2015): Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 412, 112-121, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2014.12.035.
[56] Singh, R, PM Reed and K Keller (2015): Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response, Ecology and Society, 20(3), DOI: 10.5751/ES-07687-200312.
[55] Sriver, RL, CE Forest and K Keller (2015): Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: An analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble, Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), 5468-5476, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064546/full.
[54] Sue Wing, I, E Monier, A Stern and A Mundra (2015): US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits, Environmental Research Letters, 10(11), 115002, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/115002.
[53] Tilmes, S, MJ Mills, U Niemeier, H Schmidt, A Robock, B Kravitz, JF Lamarque, G Pitari and JM English (2015): A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models, Geoscientific Model Development, 8(1), 43-49, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015.
[52] Tuana, N (2015): Coupled ethical-epistemic analysis in teaching ethics, Communications of the ACM, 58(12), 27-29, DOI: 10.1145/2835957.
[51] Ward, VL, R Singh, PM Reed and K Keller (2015): Confronting tipping points: Can multi-objective evolutionary algorithms discover pollution control tradeoffs given environmental thresholds?, Environmental Modeling and Software, 73, 27-43, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.020.

2014


[50] Adams, P, N Donahue, M Dworkin, W Griffin, K Keller, I Azevedo, P Jaramillo, C Samaras and N Gilbraith (2014): Uncertainty in Climate Science: Not an Excuse for Inaction, , https://goo.gl/TtKnVx.
[49] Alley, R and D Pollard (2014): Despite Record Cold 'Weather', Climate is Changing, Newspaper Article, Centre Daily Times, http://goo.gl/wh7PGT.
[48] Berdahl, M, A Robock, D Ji, JC Moore, A Jones, B Kravitz and S Watanabe (2014): Arctic cryosphere response in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G3 and G4 scenarios, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 119(3), 1308–1321, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020627.
[47] Butler, MP, PM Reed, K Fisher-Vanden, K Keller and T Wagener (2014): Identifying parametric controls and dependencies in integrated assessment models using global sensitivity analysis, Environmental Modelling and Software, 59, 10-29, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.001.
[46] Butler, MP, PM Reed, K Fisher-Vanden, K Keller and T Wagener (2014): Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks, Climatic Change, 127(3-4), 463-474, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1283-0.
[45] Caldwell, C (2014): Shifting Seasons: Building Tribal Capacity for Climate Change Adaptation Summit, College of Menominee Nation Sustainable Development Institute, Final Report, http://www.nicrn.org/shifting-seasons-summits.html.
[44] Chang, W (2014): Climate model calibration using high-dimensional and non-Gaussian spatial data, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, [M Haran, and K Keller (contributors)], https://goo.gl/YV1NUR.
[43] Chang, W, M Haran, R Olson and K Keller (2014): Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration and the effect of data aggregation, The Annals of Applied Statistics, 8(2), 649-673, DOI: 10.1214/14-aoas733.
[42] Chang, W, PJ Applegate, M Haran and K Keller (2014): Probabilistic calibration of a Greenland Ice Sheet model using spatially resolved synthetic observations: toward projections of ice mass loss with uncertainties, Geoscientific Model Development, 7(5), 1933-1943, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-7-1933-2014.
[41] Clarke, L, K Jiang (Coordinating Lead Authors), K Akimoto, M Babiker, G Blanford, K Fisher-Vanden, JC Hourcade, V Krey, E Kriegler, A Löschel, D McCollum, S Paltsev, S Rose, PR Shukla, M Tavoni, BC van der Zwaan, DP van Vuuren (Lead Authors), H Böttcher, K Calvin, K Daenzer, M den Elzen, S Dhar, J Eom, S Hoeller, N Höhne, N Hultman, P Irvine, J Jewell, N Johnson, A Kanudia, A Kelemen, K Keller, P Kolp, M Lawrence, T Longden, J Lowe, AF de Lucena, G Luderer, G Marangoni, N Moore, I Mouratiadou, N Petermann, P Rasch, K Riahi, J Rogelj, M Schaeffer, S Schäfer, J Sedlacek, L Sokka, C von Stechow, I Sue Wing, N Vaughan, T Wiertz and T Zwickel (Contributing Authors) (2014): Assessing Transformation Pathways, In Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [O Edenhofer, R Pichs-Madruga, Y Sokona, E Farahani, S Kadner, K Seyboth, A Adler, I Baum, S Brunner, P Eickemeier, B Kriemann, J Savolainen, S Schlömer, C von Stechow, T Zwickel, and JC Minx (eds)], 413-510, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 413-510, DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415416.012.
[40] Curry, CL, J Sillmann, D Bronaugh, K Alterskjaer, JN Cole, D Ji, B Kravitz, JE Kristjánsson, JC Moore, H Muri, U Niemeier, A Robock, S Tilmes and S Yang (2014): A multimodel examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 119(7), 3900-3923, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020648.
[39] Huneeus, N, O Boucher, K Alterskjær, JN Cole, CL Curry, D Ji, A Jones, B Kravitz, JE Kristjánsson, JC Moore, H Muri, U Niemeier, P Rasch, A Robock, B Singh, H Schmidt, M Schulz, S Tilmes, S Watanabe and JH Yoon (2014): Forcings and feedbacks in the GeoMIP ensemble for a reduction in solar irradiance and increase in CO₂, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 119(9), 5226–5239, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD021110.
[38] Irvine, PJ, O Boucher, B Kravitz, K Alterskjær, JN Cole, D Ji, A Jones, DJ Lunt, JC Moore, H Muri, U Niemeier, A Robock, B Singh, S Tilmes, S Watanabe, S Yang and JH Yoon (2014): Key factors governing uncertainty in the response to sunshade geoengineering from a comparison of the GeoMIP ensemble and a perturbed parameter ensemble, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 119(13), 7946–7962, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020716.
[37] Jensen, S and CP Traeger (2014): Optimal climate change mitigation under long-term growth uncertainty: Stochastic integrated assessment and analytic findings, European Economic Review, 69, 104-125, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.01.008.
[36] Jensen, S and CP Traeger (2014): Optimally Climate Sensitive Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, Working paper, http://tinyurl.com/nf6vy8a.
[35] Keenan, TF, J Gray, MA Friedl, M Toomey, G Bohrer, DY Hollinger, J William Munger, J O’Keefe, HP Schmid, I Sue Wing, B Yang and AD Richardson (2014): Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology, Nature Climate Change, 4(7), 598-604, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2253.
[34] Kravitz, B, DG MacMartin, A Robock, PJ Rasch, KL Ricke, JN Cole, CL Curry, PJ Irvine, D Ji, DW Keith, JE Kristjánsson, JC Moore, H Muri, B Singh, S Tilmes, S Watanabe, S Yang and JH Yoon (2014): A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering, Environmental Research Letters, 9(7), 074013, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013.
[33] Lemoine, D and C Traeger (2014): Watch Your Step: Optimal Policy in a Tipping Climate, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 6(1), 137-166, DOI: 10.1257/pol.6.1.137.
[32] Moore, JC, A Rinke, X Yu, D Ji, X Cui, Y Li, K Alterskjær, JE Kristjánsson, H Muri, O Boucher, N Huneeus, B Kravitz, A Robock, U Niemeier, M Schulz, S Tilmes, S Watanabe and S Yang (2014): Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the GeoMIP G1 scenario, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 119(2), 567–583, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD021060.
[31] Oppenheimer, M, M Campos, R Warren (Coordinating Lead Authors), J Birkmann, G Luber, B O’Neill, K Takahashi (Lead Authors), F Berkhout, P Dube, W Foden, S Greiving, S Hsiang, M Johnston, K Keller, J Kleypas, R Kopp, R Licker, C Peres, J Price, A Robock, W Schlenker, JR Stepp, R Tol and D van Vuuren (Contributing Authors) (2014): Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities, In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [CB Field, VR Barros, DJ Dokken, KJ Mach, MD Mastrandrea, TE Bilir, M Chatterjee, KL Ebi, YO Estrada, RC Genova, B Girma, ES Kissel, AN Levy, S MacCracken, PR Mastrandrea, and LL White (eds)], 1039-1100, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1039-1100, DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415379.024.
[30] Pitari, G, V Aquila, B Kravitz, A Robock, S Watanabe, I Cionni, N Luca, GD Genova, E Mancini and S Tilmes (2014): Stratospheric ozone response to sulfate geoengineering: Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 119(5), 2629-2653, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020566.
[29] Pizer, W, M Adler, J Aldy, D Anthoff, M Cropper, K Gillingham, M Greenstone, B Murray, R Newell, R Richels, A Rowell, S Waldhoff and J Wiener (2014): Using and improving the social cost of carbon, Science, 346(6214), 1189-1190, DOI: 10.1126/science.1259774.
[28] Ramirez, RM, RK Kopparapu, V Lindner and JF Kasting (2014): Can increased atmospheric CO₂ levels trigger a runaway greenhouse?, Astrobiology, 14(8), 714-731, DOI: 10.1089/ast.2014.1153.
[27] Robock, A (2014): Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering, In Geoengineering of the Climate System, [R Harrison, and R Hester (eds)], 162-185, Cambridge: Royal Society of Chemistry, 162-185, DOI: 10.1039/9781782621225-00162.
[26] Traeger, CP (2014): A 4-Stated DICE: Quantitatively Addressing Uncertainty Effects in Climate Change, Environmental and Resource Economics, 59(1), 1-37, DOI: 10.1007/s10640-014-9776-x.
[25] Tuana, N (2014): Being affected by climate change: The Anthropocene and the body of ethics, American Philosophies Forum 2014 Conference, Stony Brook Manhattan, New York, http://philosophy.emory.edu/home/news/APF.html, April 3-5, 2014.
[24] Urban, NM, PB Holden, NR Edwards, RL Sriver and K Keller (2014): Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(7), 2543-2552, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059484.
[23] Warner, A (2014): Statistical Skill in the Emulation of Climate Models, Masters Thesis, Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, [C Forest (contributor)], https://goo.gl/ZSmqpe.
[22] Xia, L, A Robock, J Cole, CL Curry, D Ji, A Jones, B Kravitz, JC Moore, H Muri, U Niemeier, B Singh, S Tilmes, S Watanabe and JH Yoon (2014): Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: A case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 119(14), 8695–8711, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020630.

2013


[21] Crost, B and CP Traeger (2013): Optimal climate policy: Uncertainty versus Monte Carlo, Economics Letters, 120(3), 552-558, DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.05.019.
[20] Hadka, D and P Reed (2013): Borg: an auto-adaptive many-objective evolutionary computing framework, Evolutionary Computation, 21(2), 231-259, DOI: 10.1162/EVCO_a_00075.
[19] Haran, M, R Nicholas and K Keller (2013): The Role of Statistics in Sustainability Research, Essay contribution for Math Awareness Month, DOI: 10.26207/vdmd-zp32.
[18] Hargreaves, J, K Keller and T Edwards (2013): Examining Risks, Extreme Events, and Abrupt Changes, Eos Trans. AGU, 94(32), 280, DOI: 10.1002/2013EO320007.
[17] Jones, A, JM Haywood, K Alterskjær, O Boucher, JN Cole, CL Curry, PJ Irvine, D Ji, B Kravitz, J Egill Kristjánsson, JC Moore, U Niemeier, A Robock, H Schmidt, B Singh, S Tilmes, S Watanabe and JH Yoon (2013): The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 118(17), 9743-9752, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50762.
[16] Kasting, J and K Freeman (2013): Understanding Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change, The Wall Street Journal, A14, http://goo.gl/DtG5ue.
[15] Keller, K (2013): Bayesian Decision Theory and Climate Change, In Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics, 1-4, Waltham, MA: Elsevier, 1-4, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-375067-9.00143-1.
[14] Kravitz, B, A Robock, PM Forster, JM Haywood, MG Lawrence and H Schmidt (2013): An overview of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 118(23), 13,103–13,107, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020569.
[13] Kravitz, B, K Caldeira, O Boucher, A Robock, PJ Rasch, K Alterskjær, DB Karam, JN Cole, CL Curry, JM Haywood, PJ Irvine, D Ji, A Jones, JE Kristjánsson, DJ Lunt, JC Moore, U Niemeier, H Schmidt, M Schulz, B Singh, S Tilmes, S Watanabe, S Yang and JH Yoon (2013): Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 118(15), 8320-8332, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50646.
[12] Kravitz, B, PJ Rasch, PM Forster, T Andrews, JN Cole, PJ Irvine, D Ji, JE Kristjánsson, JC Moore, H Muri, U Niemeier, A Robock, B Singh, S Tilmes, S Watanabe and JH Yoon (2013): An energetic perspective on hydrological cycle changes in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 118(23), 13,087–13,102, DOI: 10.1002/2013JD020502.
[11] Kravitz, B, PM Forster, A Jones, A Robock, K Alterskjær, O Boucher, AK Jenkins, H Korhonen, JE Kristjánsson, H Muri, U Niemeier, AI Partanen, PJ Rasch, H Wang and S Watanabe (2013): Sea spray geoengineering experiments in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): Experimental design and preliminary results, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 118(19), 11,175–11,186, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50856.
[10] Lempert, RJ, DG Groves and JR Fischbach (2013): Is it Ethical to Use a Single Probability Density Function?, Working paper, Number WR-992-NSF, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/WR900/WR992/RAND_WR992.pdf.
[9] Libardoni, AG and CE Forest (2013): Correction to “Sensitivity of distributions of climate system properties to the surface temperature data set”, Geophysical Research Letters, 40(10), 2309-2311, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50480.
[8] Olson, R (2013): How Well Can Historical Temperature Observations Constrain Climate Sensitivity, Ph.D. Thesis, Geoscience, Pennsylvania State University, https://etda.libraries.psu.edu/catalog/19298.
[7] Olson, R, R Sriver, W Chang, M Haran, NM Urban and K Keller (2013): What is the effect of unresolved internal climate variability on climate sensitivity estimates?, Journal of Geophysical Research, D: Atmospheres, 118(10), 4348-4358, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50390.
[6] Robock, A and B Kravitz (2013): Use of models, analogs and field-tests for geoengineering research, Geoengineering Our Climate Working Paper and Opinion Article Series, http://goo.gl/2yQNjh.
[5] Robock, A, DG MacMartin, R Duren and MW Christensen (2013): Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs, Climatic Change, 121(3), 445-458, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0777-5.

2012


[4] Applegate, PJ, N Kirchner, EJ Stone, K Keller and R Greve (2012): An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior, The Cryosphere, 6(3), 589-606, DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-589-2012.
[3] Hadka, D and P Reed (2012): Diagnostic assessment of search controls and failure modes in many-objective evolutionary optimization, Evolutionary Computation, 20(3), 423-452, DOI: 10.1162/EVCO_a_00053.
[2] Pollard, D and RM DeConto (2012): Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica, Geoscientific Model Development, 5(5), 1273-1295, http://goo.gl/Wph3yx.
[1] Tuana, N (2012): Embedding philosophers in the practices of science: Bringing humanities to the sciences, Synthese, 190(11), 1955-1973, DOI: 10.1007/s11229-012-0171-2.