Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth
P. Christensen, K. Gillingham, and W. Nordhaus
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (22 May 2018)
Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010-2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1
keywords: climate change; economic productivity; forecast uncertainty; greenhouse gas emissions; long-run growth